這次記錄天然氣價格的趨勢，頁岩股去年受惠國策，成為其中一個熱炒版塊。
值得留意的是，到底日本重啟核電會否影響天然氣的價格，又或者天然氣真的成為重要燃料。
頁岩股的價格拭目以待。
“There are two
major factors that have emerged in the last five years that have sparked a
surge in LNG investments. First is
the shale gas “revolution” in the United States, which allowed the U.S. to
vault to the top spot
in the world for natural gas production. This caused prices to crater to below $2 per
million Btu (MMBTu) in 2012, down from their 2008 highs above $10/MMBtu.
Natural gas became significantly cheaper in the U.S. than nearly everywhere
else in the world.
The second major
event that opened the floodgates for investment in new LNG capacity is the
Fukushima nuclear crisis in Japan. Already the largest importer of LNG in the
world before the triple meltdown in March 2011, Japan had to ratchet up LNG
imports to make up for the power shortfall when it shut nearly all of its 49
gigawatts of nuclear capacity. In 2012, Japan accounted for 37% of total
global LNG demand.
The combined
effect of shale gas production in the U.S. and skyrocketing LNG demand from
Japan opened up a wide gulf between the Henry Hub benchmark price in the U.S.
and much higher oil-linked prices around the world. LNG markets, which are not liquid, could not meet the
surge in Japanese demand. Platts’ Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) price for spot LNG
floated between $4-$10/MMBTu the year and half before Fukushima. In the few
months after the meltdown, the JKM price quickly jumped to $18/MMBTu. Almost
three years later, the JKM price for month-ahead delivery in January 2014
hit $18.95/MMBTu.
In contrast, Henry Hub prices – despite
reaching a more than two year high – were only $4.50/MMBTu for the first week
of 2014. After factoring in the costs of liquefaction and transportation –
somewhere in the range of $4-$5/MMBTu – companies could still make a
substantial profit taking U.S. gas and exporting it to Asia.
Thus
ensued a scramble to permit and build LNG export facilities in the U.S.,
often
by retooling and turning around what were once import terminals.
As of December
6, 2013, the U.S. Department of Energy had
28 applications
for LNG export facilities to countries without which the U.S.
has a free-trade
agreement (five of them have been approved).”
…
Source:
Guest Post: Nuclear
Restarts Spell Trouble for LNG - Nick
Cunningham 2/2/2014
「...
日本原先是位列美國和法國之後全球第三大核電生產國。然而，在福島核電事故後，
為彌補大約490億瓦因核電停運而造成的電力供應缺口，
日本轉而進口大量LNG(進口量大漲24%)、煤炭和石油。
然而，該國或許已經處在重啟核電設施的當口。
根據DNV GL的LNG博客，如果日本完全重啟其50個核反應堆，
那麼將會降低LNG進口量5100萬噸，相當於全球LNG貿易的五分之一左右，
並將使得日韓LNG現貨價重挫。這樣一來，地區間價格差異將會顯著收窄，
出口利潤將大打折扣，一些項目也將在一夜之間變得毫無意義。
去年夏季，日本政府采納了新規，明確說明核電設施需要滿足哪些條件才能重啟。
日本核電監管委員會(NRA)目前正在評估七個公司的重啟申請，
總計涉及16個反應堆，占總量的四分之一左右。預計還將有更多的申請。
雖然日本國內依然充滿了強烈的反核情緒，但政府卻面臨重重壓力不得不重新轉向核電。
由於進口大量煤炭、天然氣和石油，該國在福島核電事故後錄得了
幾十年以來的首個貿易赤字。據估計，如果重啟一半核電設施，
日本每年將會節約大約200億美元，足以完全抵消貿易赤字
(2013年11月為赤字為126億美元)。日本首相安倍晉三也支持核電項目，
他的態度增加了項目重啟的可能性。
如果日本民眾和政府信任新的監管體系，並且接受核電重啟，
那麼LNG需求將會大幅回落，使得全球許多項目擱淺，由於成本不低，
特別是美國。世界其他國家的許多公司也不得不在
市場規模顯著縮小的情況下展開激烈競爭。
LNG前景或許非常樂觀，特別是考慮到全球能源需求一片大好的背景。
然而，日本重啟核電無疑是一個重大威脅，恐將這一切都化為泡影。」
日本核電重啟或成LNG價格“終結者” –華爾街見聞 2/2/2014
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