紀律
持之以行
不要靠運
『今天要向大家介紹一位世界上最幸運的投資者，他的名字叫Richard。說他是最幸運的原因是因為在過去30年中，他的年復合收益率高達24.55%，而同期的標普指數則只有9.4%。
如果你對這個數字沒有感覺，那就讓我們來看一下具體的數字吧。Richard投資在30年前投資的1美元現在有712美元，而將這1美元投資標普指數，那麼30年後則只有15.3美元。Richard的投資表現甚至比股神巴菲特還要好很多。
但你為什麼沒有聽說過這個人呢？其實他只是自由投資人、專欄作家Morgan Housel編制的一個Excel模型的隨機結果之一，他編制了一個Excel模型來模型65000個假定的投資者，投資結果完全是用歷史數據代入隨機過程而產生的。也就是說，Richard就是閉著眼睛扔飛鏢但幾乎每次都正中紅心的那個人，但這一切全部是運氣。
Richard的出現是概率的基本法則之一，如果你做足夠的隨機試驗，你一定會得到一些瘋狂的結果，就像Richard，在現實中就如同一個人連續7次中了樂透大獎一樣。
這個世界上有成百上千萬的投資者，他們每天都在買入和賣出股票，在這些投資者當中有一些人可能在一段時間裡很成功，但他們的成功其實完全只是隨機事件，他們就是現實版的Richard。
所以說，一些看起來很成功的投資者其實完全靠的是運氣，我們不知道Richard在現實世界裡叫什麼名字，也許就叫George Soros或 Peter Lynch 或 John Paulson或 David Tepper。
面對這種情況我們該怎麼辦？我們如何區分那位投資者依靠的是穩定可靠的個人才能，還是脾氣怪異的上帝給的那一點點運氣，我們又該向誰來學習？
識別才能和運氣的需要從過程與結果的區別中去理解。結果無非兩種，而過程則能告訴我們這個結果是從哪裡來的，是長期積累的才能獲得了最後的成功，還是一次又一次的運氣。條件與規律的相互作用就是事物的發展過程，規律的基本屬性之一就是它的穩定性，在主要條件具備時，結果會重復出現。
巴菲特的老師本·格雷厄姆寫過一本書書，書名叫《證券分析》,在這部著作發表50周年的紀念日，哥倫比亞商學院召開了一次研討會，巴菲特被應邀出席，並作了“格雷厄姆-多德都市的超級投資者們”的演講。
這次演講的主要議題是巴菲特需要向與會者說明自己不是擲骰子的幸運兒，用它自己的話說自己不是那只幸運的大猩猩。
他假設舉行一個全美2．25億人參加的擲硬幣比賽。猜中者的獎籌為1美元。每擲一次，輸者退出，贏者留下賭籌，進入下一輪。經過20輪擲幣比賽，剩下的215名贏者就掙得了100萬美元。
巴菲特繼續說道，現在，商學院的教授們在分析了這場全國性比賽之後，會指出那些擲幣的人沒有什麼特殊技巧。他們還會爭辯，這件事情很容易被2．25億只大猩猩模仿。
他承認，從統計學的角度，大猩猩靠運氣的確可能產生同樣的結果。但是設想一下，如果這215個獲勝的猩猩中有40個來自於同一家動物園，難道我們就不想問一問他們的管理員給那些大猩猩吃了些什麼嗎?
巴菲特說，任何高度集中發生在某一領域的事件，都有可能是某些不尋常的事情，並值得我們去調查。他得出關鍵性結論：萬一這群獨特的獲勝成員靠的不是他們吃了什麼，而是靠向某人學的手藝呢?
是什麼讓價值投資者們能夠在長期獲得豐厚的回報，唯一可信的答案就是正確的投資理念和邏輯，以及對投資規律的把握。許多投資者妄圖通過觀察蠟燭圖，或者拿著1920年的股票走勢圖來推測股票未來的走勢，也許他們連續幾次都押對了賭注，但這只是運氣，運氣最大的特征就是它是一個均值為零的隨機事件，也就是好運氣數量和壞運氣數量總體來看是相等的，而一次壞運氣就足以讓你輸光之前所有好運氣積累的財富。
這也就是我們重視投資者的理性和邏輯過程的緣故，唯有理性和邏輯才能帶給投資者長期的財富積累，也許短期來看你的收益還不如電腦程序Richard，但在長期，Richard虧得一無所有的時候，你的財富卻越來越多，因為他靠的是善變的運氣，而你依賴的是穩定的邏輯。』
Source:
巴菲特的大猩猩：打敗投資者的不是理性而是好運
股票/投資策略/巴菲特 文 / 陽光 2014年03月05日 12:21 來源：華爾街見聞
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/79269
Not Realizing The Difference Between Luck And Skill Puts Investors On A Road To Ruin
http://www.businessinsider.com/investment-process-and-outcomes-2014-3
Showing posts with label business insider. Show all posts
Showing posts with label business insider. Show all posts
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
[財經新聞] Wall Street's Jargon 廿二個華爾街用詞
有趣的廿二個華爾街用詞。
1. "Long"/"short"
Long and short, used to describe investments expected to go up or down, respectively, are used to replace positive or negative feelings about anything. A typical usage:
Banker 1: "I'm long seersucker, short flannel. Hipsters are a fad, my friend."
To communicate absolute certainty, a banker may say they're "triple long" or "triple short" an outcome or object.
2. "Sold!"
A sarcastic way to say "absolutely not." A typical usage:
Banker 1: Let’s watch ‘Love Actually’
Banker 2: SOLD
3. "Upside"/"Downside"
This indicates that there's a lot of (upside), or no (downside) benefit in a given situation.
Banker: "Upside of going to the Hamptons this weekend is that James is throwing a party at Pink Elephant, downside is that he's inviting my ex."
4. "A piker."
A piker is somebody who pretends to know everything about the Street but doesn't actually know anything and makes very little money working for bottom tier firm.
This term comes from the late 19th century slang verb "pike" meaning "withdraw from an agreement because of overcautiousness."
5. "Big swinging d----"
If you don't know this term, you haven't been anywhere near anyone on Wall Street. The BSD is the person that does the biggest deals, bring in the most money, and is generally a badass everyone looks up to.
The term was referenced in Michael Lewis's "Liar's Poker": "If he could make millions of dollars come out of those phones, he became that most revered of all species: a Big Swinging D*ck."
6. "Hunting elephants"
Most famously said by Warren Buffett, this means that you're looking for big deals. Here's how he put it after announcing that he would do a deal to acquire Heinz with private equity firm 3G.
"I'm ready for another elephant. Please, if you see any walking by, just call me," he told CNBC. "We're prepared. Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy."
7. "Buying size"
Trading big money or a large number of securities.
Hedge fund trader: "I have a friend over at Morgan Stanley that trades size all day every day. We should poach him."
8. "F-You money"
The money it would take for you to leave your job and never work again.
9. "Junked up"
This can be in reference to any security, and it means you're super bullish. Traders could also use it in real life to express enthusiasm for an object.
Trader: "I'm junked up on Venezuelan 10-years!"
10. "A clowngrade"
When a sellside analyst upgrades or downgrades a stock for a stupid reason.
Trader: "You see that Guggenheim analysts' Twitter clowngrade? You can't monetize that s--- yet!"
11. "Building a book"
Traditionally and professionally this means that you're building business, a portfolio of trades or deals.
In slang, it means collecting drug deal orders from friends to call them in.
12. "Put it on the tape"
Back in the old days, trade orders to be executed by brokers came out on ticker tape — a long roll of paper constantly printing orders and emptying them out to the trading floor. Now all of this is done by computers, of course.
However, the phrase has stuck. Now the tape isn't just for stocks or bonds though, it could be for ordering anything from food to drugs.
bankers at a club clubbing margin call
Margin Call screenshot
13. "Stopped out"
Meaning you're filled on an order and can take no more requests for anything from food to drugs.
14. "Treat me subject"
This means maybe. When placing an order for a client, a trader may say "treat me subject" to indicate that the client may have the order they want after the trader makes a phone call to double check that it's all in the clear.
The phrase is also used in everyday conversation to say maybe.
Banker 1: "We're going to Nobu 57 after work."
Banker 2: "Treat me subject."
15. "Fish"
Girls or clients, either way there are a lot of them in the sea.
16. "Not held"
In trading terms, this means you're free to go to the market. Conversationally, it means "feel free."
Banker 1: "Should we order the $300 bottle of Barolo?"
Banker 2: "It's not held, so whatever."
17. "Uptick"
An upgrade.
Say you're partying at PH-D at the Dream Downtown and your Managing Director decides to buy a bunch of bottles of Grey Goose. That is an uptick.
18. "Traded ahead"
You beat someone to the punch. It's a technical term, yes, but if a Banker 1 is eyeing a girl at the bar and Banker 2 goes and talks to her first...
The next day at the office, Banker 2 to Banker 1: "Sorry bro, traded ahead."
19. "The staffer's coming."
This would usually be salted with expletives, and followed by junior bankers scurrying. The staffer is the usually the very unhappy VP who has to give assignments to analysts and associates, often at night or on the weekends.
20. “What is your schedule this weekend?"
In most work environments, this could be a friendly question or perhaps a segue into a negotiation about working a bit on Sunday. On Wall Street, from the staffer, it means whatever plans you had are canceled.
21. "Can you give me some more color on that?
This is a request for additional details, something that you'll hear analysts ask on earnings calls. In conversation, it'd more likely be asking for details about a night out.
22. "I'm doing market research."
I am watching Youtube
Source:
22 Phrases That Only Wall Streeters Will Understand
Linette Lopez and Max Nisen Feb. 5, 2014, 4:20 PM 72,874 26
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/phrases-only-wall-street-understands-2014-1#ixzz2t0J6gTdx
中譯版
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/75718
1. "Long"/"short"
Long and short, used to describe investments expected to go up or down, respectively, are used to replace positive or negative feelings about anything. A typical usage:
Banker 1: "I'm long seersucker, short flannel. Hipsters are a fad, my friend."
To communicate absolute certainty, a banker may say they're "triple long" or "triple short" an outcome or object.
2. "Sold!"
A sarcastic way to say "absolutely not." A typical usage:
Banker 1: Let’s watch ‘Love Actually’
Banker 2: SOLD
3. "Upside"/"Downside"
This indicates that there's a lot of (upside), or no (downside) benefit in a given situation.
Banker: "Upside of going to the Hamptons this weekend is that James is throwing a party at Pink Elephant, downside is that he's inviting my ex."
4. "A piker."
A piker is somebody who pretends to know everything about the Street but doesn't actually know anything and makes very little money working for bottom tier firm.
This term comes from the late 19th century slang verb "pike" meaning "withdraw from an agreement because of overcautiousness."
5. "Big swinging d----"
If you don't know this term, you haven't been anywhere near anyone on Wall Street. The BSD is the person that does the biggest deals, bring in the most money, and is generally a badass everyone looks up to.
The term was referenced in Michael Lewis's "Liar's Poker": "If he could make millions of dollars come out of those phones, he became that most revered of all species: a Big Swinging D*ck."
6. "Hunting elephants"
Most famously said by Warren Buffett, this means that you're looking for big deals. Here's how he put it after announcing that he would do a deal to acquire Heinz with private equity firm 3G.
"I'm ready for another elephant. Please, if you see any walking by, just call me," he told CNBC. "We're prepared. Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy."
7. "Buying size"
Trading big money or a large number of securities.
Hedge fund trader: "I have a friend over at Morgan Stanley that trades size all day every day. We should poach him."
8. "F-You money"
The money it would take for you to leave your job and never work again.
9. "Junked up"
This can be in reference to any security, and it means you're super bullish. Traders could also use it in real life to express enthusiasm for an object.
Trader: "I'm junked up on Venezuelan 10-years!"
10. "A clowngrade"
When a sellside analyst upgrades or downgrades a stock for a stupid reason.
Trader: "You see that Guggenheim analysts' Twitter clowngrade? You can't monetize that s--- yet!"
11. "Building a book"
Traditionally and professionally this means that you're building business, a portfolio of trades or deals.
In slang, it means collecting drug deal orders from friends to call them in.
12. "Put it on the tape"
Back in the old days, trade orders to be executed by brokers came out on ticker tape — a long roll of paper constantly printing orders and emptying them out to the trading floor. Now all of this is done by computers, of course.
However, the phrase has stuck. Now the tape isn't just for stocks or bonds though, it could be for ordering anything from food to drugs.
bankers at a club clubbing margin call
Margin Call screenshot
13. "Stopped out"
Meaning you're filled on an order and can take no more requests for anything from food to drugs.
14. "Treat me subject"
This means maybe. When placing an order for a client, a trader may say "treat me subject" to indicate that the client may have the order they want after the trader makes a phone call to double check that it's all in the clear.
The phrase is also used in everyday conversation to say maybe.
Banker 1: "We're going to Nobu 57 after work."
Banker 2: "Treat me subject."
15. "Fish"
Girls or clients, either way there are a lot of them in the sea.
16. "Not held"
In trading terms, this means you're free to go to the market. Conversationally, it means "feel free."
Banker 1: "Should we order the $300 bottle of Barolo?"
Banker 2: "It's not held, so whatever."
17. "Uptick"
An upgrade.
Say you're partying at PH-D at the Dream Downtown and your Managing Director decides to buy a bunch of bottles of Grey Goose. That is an uptick.
18. "Traded ahead"
You beat someone to the punch. It's a technical term, yes, but if a Banker 1 is eyeing a girl at the bar and Banker 2 goes and talks to her first...
The next day at the office, Banker 2 to Banker 1: "Sorry bro, traded ahead."
19. "The staffer's coming."
This would usually be salted with expletives, and followed by junior bankers scurrying. The staffer is the usually the very unhappy VP who has to give assignments to analysts and associates, often at night or on the weekends.
20. “What is your schedule this weekend?"
In most work environments, this could be a friendly question or perhaps a segue into a negotiation about working a bit on Sunday. On Wall Street, from the staffer, it means whatever plans you had are canceled.
21. "Can you give me some more color on that?
This is a request for additional details, something that you'll hear analysts ask on earnings calls. In conversation, it'd more likely be asking for details about a night out.
22. "I'm doing market research."
I am watching Youtube
Source:
22 Phrases That Only Wall Streeters Will Understand
Linette Lopez and Max Nisen Feb. 5, 2014, 4:20 PM 72,874 26
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/phrases-only-wall-street-understands-2014-1#ixzz2t0J6gTdx
中譯版
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/75718
Sunday, February 9, 2014
[閱讀人生] 外國名人早上的閱讀習慣
作為愛閱讀的人，這篇文並不太新鮮，但亦可作為以後閱讀的參考。
個人喜好： post852.com, aastocks.com.hk, 主場新聞, 信報, 蘋果日報, am730, etnet...
「常言道，一日之計在於晨。即使取得相當成就，一些名人也會擠出清晨時間了解資訊。Business Insider總結了以下十多位成功人士的閱讀習慣，從中我們可以發現他們把寶貴的晨光用來了解哪些媒體的信息。當然，有些也並不僅限於清早閱讀，但都能體現這些名人利用時間的好習慣。
1、巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的一天從多家美國全國及地方新聞報道開始。
“股神”巴菲特2007年接受采訪時透露，他早上會讀《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）、《金融時報》（Financial Times）、《紐約時報》（New York Times）、《今日美國》（USA Today）、《奧馬哈世界先驅報》（Omaha World-Herald）和《美國銀行家》（American Banker）。
這份清單可分量夠足的。
2、查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）的清早貢獻給《經濟學人》（Economist）。
福克斯新聞采訪時問起早上喜歡讀什麼，巴菲特的老拍檔芒格回答得很簡單：“《經濟學人》。”
3、奧巴馬早上讀一些美國全國性的報紙、一兩個博客和一些雜志。
美國總統奧巴馬2012年在《滾石》（Rolling Stone）采訪時透露，他每天早上會讀《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》和《華盛頓郵報》（Washington Post）。
而且，奧巴馬是《時代》雜志一些專欄作家的忠實讀者，他也喜歡讀《紐約客》（New Yorker）、《大西洋月刊》（The Atlantic）和知名博客作者Andrew Sullivan的文章。
4、比爾·蓋茨（Bill Gates）讀全國性的報紙和每天的新聞聚合內容。
微軟的奠基人蓋茨每天收取範圍廣泛的新聞聚合內容，由他任董事、巴菲特領導的伯克希爾哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）會向他推送一些要聞報道。
蓋茨也會讀《華爾街日報》、《紐約時報》和《經濟學人》的封面。
5、通用電氣首席執行官Jeffrey Immelt用自己的一套獨特方式讀新聞。
Immelt 2005年這樣告訴Fast Company雜志：
我通常從位於中央部分的版面開始看《華爾街日報》，然後會讀《金融時報》，快速瀏覽金融時報指數（FTIndex）和第二版。
接下來我會看《紐約時報》，只看商業報道，其他的放在一邊。看《今日美國》我會先看體育版，再看商業版，接著是生活版。
最後我會讀《紐約郵報》（New York Post）的第六頁，接著是它的少量商業報道。
6、前百事可樂首席執行官Steve Reinemund讀《達拉斯新聞早報》（Dallas Morning News）和多份全國早報。
Starwinar.com報道，Reinemund每天清晨5點30分起床，然後就下樓讀一些報紙。
Reinemund會瀏覽《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》、《金融時報》，還有《達拉斯新聞早報》。
7、星巴克創始人Howard Schultz二十五年來始終保留著清早讀報的習慣。
2006年，Schultz告訴CNNMoney，他每天早上5點到5點30分起床，然後泡咖啡、讀三份報紙：《西雅圖時報》（Seattle Times）、《華爾街日報》和《紐約時報》。
對Schultz來說，這個讀報的習慣肯定有好處，否則他也不會堅持了二十多年。
8、維珍美國航空公司（Virgin America）首席執行官David Cush讀五份報紙，做運動時聽體育新聞。
Cush向美聯社透露，他在美國西海岸時間清早4點15分起床，發送電子郵件，與東海岸的人通話。
然後他邊做運動邊聽達拉斯的體育廣播，再讀一些日報，包括《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》、《今日美國》、《舊金山紀事報》（San Francisco Chronicle）和《金融時報》。
9、前谷歌企業業務Google Enterprise總裁、Upstart首席執行官Dave Girouard用Nexus 7手機讀《紐約時報》和《華爾街日報》，最近還在讀英國政治家邱吉爾的一些演講稿。
Girouard告訴Business Insider，他是邱吉爾演講的鐵杆粉絲，最近在讀一部邱吉爾最佳演講文集Never Give In! The Best of Winston Churchill's Speeches。
新聞方面，Girouard選擇瀏覽《紐約時報》和《華爾街日報》。
10、Buzzfeed創始人、首席執行官Jonah Peretti坐地鐵時讀《紐約時報》的商業版或者體育版，他妻子會保存好其他內容。
接受《連線》采訪時，Peretti透露自己每天早上8點30分左右起床，上班的路上他會讀《紐約時報》商業版或體育版。
他也會看紐約時報的雜志內容，在添了一對雙胞胎以後，他就沒空看訂閱的《紐約客》和《經濟學人》了。
和許多年輕一代領導者一樣，Peretti獲取信息的主要渠道是Twitter和Facebook。
11、在選舉年，美國總統選情分析預測網站FiveThirtyEight主編Nate Silver會查看Twitter、搜索引擎Memeorandum和Real Clear Politics。
Silver告訴《連線》，每逢選舉年，他習慣在早上喝咖啡以前先查看Twitter、Memeorandum和Real Clear Politics。
如果沒發生什麼大事，他可能稍微打個盹，然後看一看《大西洋月刊》、Marginal Revolution和Andrew Sullivan的博客。
12、NBC首席白宮報道記者Chuck Todd在Twitter上查看美國各州的至少一家大報。
Todd告訴AdWeek，每天早上4點30分到5點起床，先看一些郵件，然後登錄Twitter查看各地報紙的主流報道。
Todd說：
Twitter是21世紀的通訊社。我記得自己第一次接觸到美聯社的50個州通訊報道，那是1992年，還從沒有那樣的東西。
現在Twitter就是那樣，我已經能建立自己的政治和國際時事新聞報道網。
除了Twitter，Todd還在iPad上讀《紐約時報》、《華盛頓郵報》、《今日美國》、《華爾街日報》和《金融時報》。
13、雖然為電視台工作，但福克斯新聞主播Shepard Smith的主要信息渠道是《紐約郵報》和《紐約時報》。
Smith向AdWeek透露，每天早上他首先會訪問《紐約郵報》和《紐約時報》的網站，然後再瀏覽The Daily Beast和SportsGrid，有時會看看Buzzfeed。
最後，他會看一些當天報道涉及的相關網站，包括許多地方報紙。
Smith認為，避免信息泛濫是一項持久戰。」
source:
成功人士清早喜歡讀什麼？ - 文 / 若離 2014年02月03日 09:29 來源：華爾街見聞
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/74947
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
<財經新聞> 美國末日論 源收水通縮 - "股市漲幅與美聯儲主席的身高有著某種聯系"
通縮帶來經濟衰退 ，還是耶倫的身高才是重點?
末日輪多的是，跟聯儲長身高的關係真的第一次，仲要有圖...
『阿爾伯特·愛德華茲(Albert Edwards)，倫敦金融圈最著名的“空頭分析師”，法國興業銀行首席策略師。
18年來，愛德華茲先生孜孜不倦地宣揚他那“冰河時代”的市場末日預言——美股即將下跌。盡管有很長一段時間“冰河時代”並未來臨，但事情總有例外——1997-1998年亞洲金融風暴和美國房產市場泡沫就被他說中了。
上周，法興在倫敦一座豪華酒店內舉行了一年一度的策略分析會，並和同事Andrew Lapthorne以及前同事Dylan Grice共同發表了一份世界經濟評論。毫無疑問，評論內容一如既往地悲觀。
愛德華茲說: 通貨緊縮才是目前真正的危險。美國和歐洲都處於經濟衰退之中，並且都從徹徹底底的通縮中僥幸逃脫了。但經濟衰退和通縮都將對股市產生不利影響。
但市場似乎並未留意，相反，還有人認為經濟正在自行修復。
Dylan Grice警告稱：投資者不應該被誘導，誤以為當前創紀錄新低的國債收益率意味著低風險。實際上，金融市場正在通過國債收益率測試美國的可信任程度。
愛德華茲引用了一系列指標來說明即將到來的通縮。
實際意義上的通縮已經迫近。歐美地區的核心通脹和整體通脹正雙雙走低。但是，歐洲央行對此卻並不擔憂，或許他們認為通脹下行可以幫助意大利和西班牙變得更有競爭力。如果他們真是這樣想，那就太滑稽了。
美國疲軟的勞動力市場是另外一個衡量指標。愛德華茲引用了PIMCO管理公司Bill Gross的評論：比非農就業更為可靠的家庭就業程度去年表現非常糟糕，每月僅增加10萬崗位。
愛德華茲表示，日本將在通縮中扮演主角。
日本已經破產了，他別無選擇，只好用印錢、印錢、再印錢來維持經濟外表的光鮮。日元將被迫下行，並向全世界出口通縮。
還有兩個亞洲國家將扮演配角——韓國和泰國。
他們將被迫進行貨幣貶值，並將通縮擠進發達國家。1995年-1997年的亞洲金融風暴就是先例。屆時，美國將遭遇通縮襲擊。而歐洲將出現企業利潤增長停滯，甚至略有下滑。
企業裁員是經濟衰退的關鍵風險。削減投資和去庫存將主導企業利潤下跌和裁員。
經濟衰退的幾率正在增加。經濟復蘇的持續時長中間值僅有36個月。過去的三個經濟周期之所以延長，都是央行干預的結果。
通脹預期在1.5%—2.5%之間。如果低於1.5%，那麼股票市場將作出巨大反應。基本面將驅動股市發展。一系列經濟指標都表明股市被高估了，包括席勒的CAPE指標、Tobin`s Q（企業市價與資本重置成本之比）。我敢說，在下一次的經濟衰退中，投資收益將比現在還要糟糕7.5倍。
量化寬松政策的影響還知之甚少。
這是公認的：量化寬松將永遠推高股市。但量化寬松政策有利於大宗商品也是公認的。但這公認的理論已經被證明是錯誤的。認為股票永遠上漲也是錯誤的。一旦投資者意識到量化寬松政策不能無限期地支持市場或經濟，股市就將反轉。
在那個下午，愛德華茲先生還談起了身段嬌小的美聯儲准主席耶倫。他聲稱發現了一個詭異的現像：
最近幾十年來，股市漲幅與美聯儲主席的身高有著某種聯系，每一屆主席任期內都是如此。 因此，如果要任命一位女士作為美聯儲主席，至少要確保她身材高大。身高模型最好參照Magic Johnson（被譽為“魔術師”的NBA球員Earvin Johnson）——6英尺5英寸（約合1.95米）。這樣才能確保較好的長期收益率。 』
大空頭Albert Edwards：歐美經濟站上通縮懸崖邊緣 - 华尔街见闻 27/1/2014
空頭/阿爾伯特·愛德華茲 文 / Yveline 2014年01月27日 13:57 來源：華爾街見聞
Source:
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/73916
英文原文節錄:
“You will see waves of deflation coming into the U.S. and the euro zone at a time when profits are already stagnant or slightly falling,” he said. That will pressure companies based in the developed markets.
Corporate cutbacks are the key risk of a recession, he said. Cuts in investment and inventories will be a precursor to falling profits and headcount reductions.
Odds of a recession are increasing, Edwards said, as the current recovery nears its sixth anniversary. He said the median length of economic recoveries has been only 36 months. Our minds are “polluted,” he said, because the last three cycles were lengthened due to central bank intervention. Profits, labor costs and productivity in the U.S. have been a “big fat zero,” Edwards said. “That is all associated with a cycle which is already long in the tooth.”
Indeed, Edwards said that sentiment regarding inflation could trigger lower equity prices. Inflation expectations are firmly anchored between 1.5% and 2.5%, he said, and if inflation drops below 1.5%, “you can get a massive equity market reaction.”
ALBERT EDWARDS: My Pick For Fed Chair Would've Been Basketball Legend Magic Johnson
http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-dylan-grice-2014-outlook-2014-1
末日輪多的是，跟聯儲長身高的關係真的第一次，仲要有圖...
『阿爾伯特·愛德華茲(Albert Edwards)，倫敦金融圈最著名的“空頭分析師”，法國興業銀行首席策略師。
18年來，愛德華茲先生孜孜不倦地宣揚他那“冰河時代”的市場末日預言——美股即將下跌。盡管有很長一段時間“冰河時代”並未來臨，但事情總有例外——1997-1998年亞洲金融風暴和美國房產市場泡沫就被他說中了。
上周，法興在倫敦一座豪華酒店內舉行了一年一度的策略分析會，並和同事Andrew Lapthorne以及前同事Dylan Grice共同發表了一份世界經濟評論。毫無疑問，評論內容一如既往地悲觀。
愛德華茲說: 通貨緊縮才是目前真正的危險。美國和歐洲都處於經濟衰退之中，並且都從徹徹底底的通縮中僥幸逃脫了。但經濟衰退和通縮都將對股市產生不利影響。
但市場似乎並未留意，相反，還有人認為經濟正在自行修復。
Dylan Grice警告稱：投資者不應該被誘導，誤以為當前創紀錄新低的國債收益率意味著低風險。實際上，金融市場正在通過國債收益率測試美國的可信任程度。
愛德華茲引用了一系列指標來說明即將到來的通縮。
實際意義上的通縮已經迫近。歐美地區的核心通脹和整體通脹正雙雙走低。但是，歐洲央行對此卻並不擔憂，或許他們認為通脹下行可以幫助意大利和西班牙變得更有競爭力。如果他們真是這樣想，那就太滑稽了。
美國疲軟的勞動力市場是另外一個衡量指標。愛德華茲引用了PIMCO管理公司Bill Gross的評論：比非農就業更為可靠的家庭就業程度去年表現非常糟糕，每月僅增加10萬崗位。
愛德華茲表示，日本將在通縮中扮演主角。
日本已經破產了，他別無選擇，只好用印錢、印錢、再印錢來維持經濟外表的光鮮。日元將被迫下行，並向全世界出口通縮。
還有兩個亞洲國家將扮演配角——韓國和泰國。
他們將被迫進行貨幣貶值，並將通縮擠進發達國家。1995年-1997年的亞洲金融風暴就是先例。屆時，美國將遭遇通縮襲擊。而歐洲將出現企業利潤增長停滯，甚至略有下滑。
企業裁員是經濟衰退的關鍵風險。削減投資和去庫存將主導企業利潤下跌和裁員。
經濟衰退的幾率正在增加。經濟復蘇的持續時長中間值僅有36個月。過去的三個經濟周期之所以延長，都是央行干預的結果。
通脹預期在1.5%—2.5%之間。如果低於1.5%，那麼股票市場將作出巨大反應。基本面將驅動股市發展。一系列經濟指標都表明股市被高估了，包括席勒的CAPE指標、Tobin`s Q（企業市價與資本重置成本之比）。我敢說，在下一次的經濟衰退中，投資收益將比現在還要糟糕7.5倍。
量化寬松政策的影響還知之甚少。
這是公認的：量化寬松將永遠推高股市。但量化寬松政策有利於大宗商品也是公認的。但這公認的理論已經被證明是錯誤的。認為股票永遠上漲也是錯誤的。一旦投資者意識到量化寬松政策不能無限期地支持市場或經濟，股市就將反轉。
在那個下午，愛德華茲先生還談起了身段嬌小的美聯儲准主席耶倫。他聲稱發現了一個詭異的現像：
最近幾十年來，股市漲幅與美聯儲主席的身高有著某種聯系，每一屆主席任期內都是如此。 因此，如果要任命一位女士作為美聯儲主席，至少要確保她身材高大。身高模型最好參照Magic Johnson（被譽為“魔術師”的NBA球員Earvin Johnson）——6英尺5英寸（約合1.95米）。這樣才能確保較好的長期收益率。 』
大空頭Albert Edwards：歐美經濟站上通縮懸崖邊緣 - 华尔街见闻 27/1/2014
空頭/阿爾伯特·愛德華茲 文 / Yveline 2014年01月27日 13:57 來源：華爾街見聞
Source:
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/73916
英文原文節錄:
“You will see waves of deflation coming into the U.S. and the euro zone at a time when profits are already stagnant or slightly falling,” he said. That will pressure companies based in the developed markets.
Corporate cutbacks are the key risk of a recession, he said. Cuts in investment and inventories will be a precursor to falling profits and headcount reductions.
Odds of a recession are increasing, Edwards said, as the current recovery nears its sixth anniversary. He said the median length of economic recoveries has been only 36 months. Our minds are “polluted,” he said, because the last three cycles were lengthened due to central bank intervention. Profits, labor costs and productivity in the U.S. have been a “big fat zero,” Edwards said. “That is all associated with a cycle which is already long in the tooth.”
Indeed, Edwards said that sentiment regarding inflation could trigger lower equity prices. Inflation expectations are firmly anchored between 1.5% and 2.5%, he said, and if inflation drops below 1.5%, “you can get a massive equity market reaction.”
ALBERT EDWARDS: My Pick For Fed Chair Would've Been Basketball Legend Magic Johnson
http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-dylan-grice-2014-outlook-2014-1
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
<商業管理＞ 走出comfort zone
修身 齊家 治國 平天下
You have to do the hard things.
Read more:http://read.bi/1iOv26u
蘇偉文講過：對自己要 狠
from Business Insider
You have to do the hard things.
- You have to make the call you’re afraid to make.
- You have to get up earlier than you want to get up.
- You have to give more than get in return right away.
- You have to care more about others than they care about you.
- You have to fight when you are already injured, bloody, and sore.
- You have to feel unsure and insecure when playing if safe seems smarter.
- You have to lead when no one else is following you yet.
- You have to invest in yourself even though no one else is.
- You have to look like a fool while you’re looking for answers you don’t have.
- You have to grind out the details when it’s easier to shrug them off.
- You have to deliver results when making excuses is an option.
- You have to search for your own explanations even when you’re told to accept the “facts.”
- You have to make mistakes and look like an idiot.
- You have to try and fail and try again.
- You have to run faster even though you’re out of breath.
- You have to be kind to people who have been cruel to you.
- You have to meet deadlines that are unreasonable and deliver results that are unparalleled.
- You have to be accountable for your actions even when things go wrong.
- You have to keep moving towards where you want to be no matter what’s in front of you.
Read more:http://read.bi/1iOv26u
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